Aotearoa Forecast Updated. 19 August 2025 - 22 August 2025
Solar wind arrived on cue but barely 400km/second...not enough to drive local Mag 4 quakes. Solar wind has picked up today, reaching 700km/second and briefly reaching Kp5 geomagnetic conditions. Quakes may respond to the solar wind increase over the next day or two. A minor but significant quake series appears to have begun along the length of the Southern Alps, matching the extensive string of quake risk locations in the forecast. Most risk locations are east of the Main Divide. The forecast period is extended to 22 August. Upper Rakaia River is added to Mag 5 risk locations. South Island is higher risk. Volcanic tremor remains steady at Ruapehu. The forecast may not be updated before 22 August. This Service is then offline from 23 August until 2 September. Forecast 19-20 August 2025. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Offshore Doubtful Sound, Offshore Caswell Sound, Lower Landsborough River, Paringa, Lower Awatere River, Cape Campbell, Castlepoint, Pongaroa, Dannevirke, Waipukurau. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest of Snares Islands, Puysegur Point, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Pyke River, Cascade River, Lower Arawhata River, Twizel, Arthurs Pass, Southern Wairarapa, Kapiti, Ruatoria, Tokomaru Bay. Volcanic tremor continues at Ruapehu. Solar wind from Coronal Hole 1312 is here as this forecast is posted. Risk locations are similar to the previous forecast period. The period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
