Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Forecast Updated. 19 August 2025 - 22 August 2025

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Update. 20 August 9.00pm
Solar wind conditions arrived on cue but very weak.
Quakes and eruptions are quiet early in the period.
Solar wind has picked up today, briefly reaching a fast 700km/second and Kp5 geomagnetic conditions.
Quakes and eruptions may unfold with the fast solar wind.
The forecast period is extended to 22 August.
Offshore Hokkaido is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
This Service will be offline from 23 August -2 September.

Forecast 19-20 August 2025.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Raoul Island, Northern Tonga, Hunter Island, Espiritu Santo, New Britain, Bismarck Sea, South Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Offshore Central Philippines, Offshore Kyushu, Central Kuril Islands, Northern Kuril Islands, Southern California, South of Valdivia, Scotia Sea.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Kliuchevskoi, Lewotobi, Sakurajima, Kirishima, Suwanosejima.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.