Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 5 October 2025 - 10 October 2025

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Big quakes came to the Western Pacific during the period but the SW Pacific, including New Zealand was quiet. Note that unusually only one risk location for SW Pacific was offered, a risky forecast proposition but justified in the end...
Local quakes never got to Mag 4, the biggest weren't in risk locations and the forecast wasn't updated due to a big whitebait run. A good forecast for the sceptics except for the fact that the Pacific forecast had many successes.
Local volcanologists announced that the slowly heating crater lake at Ruapehu has started cooling again. They don't seem to have noticed the accompanying steady volcanic tremor last few weeks but that volcanic tremor has also slightly reduced as the pressure eases.
Unusually and generously they released a long term crater lake temperature chart, showing how the lake has overall cooled since 2019 when Ruapehu and White Island were both hot.
White Island erupted on 9 December 2019 and Ruapehu got very hot soon after. Both events were covered in forecast periods.
Regardless, Ruapehu has erupted from a cold crater lake in the past so lake temperature isn't the forecast holy grail.
New coronal hole driven spaceweather is due early 12 October.
8 October.
Waipukurau 3.7 6.22pm
9 October.
Papamoa 3.8 7.51am

Forecast 5-6 October 2025.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Pyke River, Cascade River, Turakirae Head, Masterton, Pongaroa, East of East Cape, South of Kermadec Islands.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest Arm Te Anau, Arawhata River, Haast, Lower Landsborough River, Cass, Cape Campbell, Western Cook Strait, Dannevirke, Ruatoria.
Volcanos quiet.
The period is likely to be extended.