Pacific Summary Updated. 5 October 2025 - 12 October 2025
The quake period has lasted another day with more big quakes. The Drake Passage 7.7 follows the 22 August Mag 7.5 in the same location. The Offshore Northern Mindanao 6.0 is 200km north of the Offshore Southern Mindanao 7.4 and could be a signal that a new section of subduction zone between the two quake locations is about to let go. Perfect risk location success at Offshore Mindanao. No risk location success at Drake Passage this time although the 22 August Mag 7.5 quake was a forecast success in this difficult forecast region. The 1 October North of Cebu 6.9 is not that far away from the present action....the whole region is moving around. 11 October. Offshore Southern Mindanao 6.7 12.02am Southern Drake Passage 7.7 9.29am 12 October. Offshore Northern Mindanao 6.0 3.32am Summary. 5-10 October 2025. The wider period began on 30 September with the arrival of a strong coronal hole windstream and Kp7 geomagnetic storming, setting off another long period that lasted until 10 October. Unusually for Solar Cycle 25, an early quake response on 1 October, Philippines 6.9 was followed by the familiar path of few quakes until solar wind speed fell back to background levels on 8 October and then came the expected late tectonic response. The forecast wasn't updated due to a big whitebait run but a clue was offered that the period would be extended... Big quakes came within 25 minutes of each other on 10 October, demonstrating the global effect of spaceweather and clustered quakes in response. The Offshore Mindanao 7.4 fortunately took only 2 lives although a lot of people were hospitalised. Excellent risk location success at Honshu, Philippines and Kamchatka from a relatively small number of risk locations offered. The Offshore Mindanao 7.4 justified Mag 7 risk during the period. Volcanos were stable during the period with no new eruptions. New coronal hole driven spaceweather is due by early 12 October. 5 October. East of Honshu 6.0 4.21am 8 October. Lae, Papua New Guinea 6.6 12.05am 10 October. Kamchatka 6.0 2.28am Offshore Southern Mindanao 7.4 2.43pm Bismarck Sea 6.3 3.08pm Forecast. 5-6 October 2025. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Tanna, Cebu, Offshore Philippines, East of Honshu, Central Kuril Islands, Kamchatka, Inner Aleutian Islands, Baja California, Coquimbo. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence = low. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
