Aotearoa Summary. 4 November 2025 - 10 November 2025
Fluctuating spaceweather during the period made for a mixed bag of quakes as several minor coronal mass ejections overtook a coronal hole windstream. Magnetic orientation fluctuated as the minor shocks passed Earth. A mild quake spell eventuated with local quakes never getting past Mag 4 late in the period. Background volcanic tremor at Ruapehu remained steady during the period. No sign of any quakes or degassing. The unconfirmed undersea eruption on the Kermadec or Tonga Ridge stopped and then started again today on the Rarotonga SSAM. Sunspot 4274 which fired the weak coronal mass ejections has now rotated around and is Earth facing. Sunspot 4274 fired an Earth directed X1.7 flare and coronal mass ejection on 9 November 0735 UTC. A substantial Kp7/8 geomagnetic storm is due by 11 November and may also bring a new period of quakes. A new forecast is being processed. 4 November. Lake Tarawera 4.3 12.34pm 5 November. Northern Cook Strait 4.9 9.09pm 10 November. West of Snares Islands 4.1 7.17am Update. 8 November 10.30pm Moderate spaceweather arrived on cue with Kp6 geomagnetic conditions from a fast 800km/second coronal hole driven solar windstream. Active sunspot 4274 has rotated around the east limb of the Sun and firing double X1 flares and long duration M8 flare. Weak coronal mass ejections are arriving at Earth in the next day. Sunspot 4274 is becoming Earth facing over the next few days and still likely to flare again. A moderate quake period has begun in New Zealand. The 5 November Cook Strait 4.9 was widely felt. Frustratingly, neither Mag 4 quake during the period was in a risk location although the period has a few days to run. Volcanic tremor picked up slightly at Ruapehu with the onset of solar wind. No indication of any minor degassing or minor quake swarms yet. Volcanologists monitoring White Island say the volcano is active with minor ash emissions. The forecast period is extended to 9 November. Tokoroa, Taupo are added to Mag 4 risk locations. 4 November. Lake Tarawera 4.3 12.34pm 5 November. Northern Cook Strait 4.9 9.09pm Forecast. 4-7 November 2025. Magnitude 5 risk location is Otira. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest Arm Te Anau, Pyke River, Lower Landsborough River, Mt Cook, North of Hanmer, West of Masterton, Waipukurau, Central Taranaki Bight, East of East Cape. Possible continuation of minor eruptions at White Island. Possible minor degassing/quake swarm Ruapehu. A strong 356000km Full Moon Perigee/Supermoon on 5 November may modulate quakes to low tide. The forecast is posted early and may be modified. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
