Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Forecast. 9 December 2025 - 10 December 2025

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Magnitude 5 risk locations are Upper Grey Valley, Reefton, Springs Junction, Lewis Pass, Lake Coleridge, Lower Awatere Valley, Cape Campbell.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest Arm Te Anau, George Sound, Caswell Sound, Milford Sound, Pyke River, St Arnaud, Richmond Range, Northern Cook Strait, West of Masterton, Eketahuna, South of Taranaki, Atiamuri.
Ruapehu Mag 1 quake swarm possible. Continuation of high volcanic tremor 2-7Hz.
Continuation of ash emissions from White Island.
Spaceweather has finally met quake driving conditions following the arrival of solar wind from Coronal Hole 1333 on 3 December and brief Kp7 auroras.
Solar wind has finally fallen below 400km/second and magnetic orientation turning south on 8 December 1400UTC with an immediate tectonic/piezoelectric Earth to space discharge producing the Offshore Northern Honshu 7.6 at 1427UTC.
The Pacific forecast has been abandoned because it has got behind the action and too late being posted.
No local quakes have yet arrived so there has been time to post a New Zealand forecast.
One and possibly two moderate coronal mass ejections following the 6 December Earth directed M8 flare from sunspot AR4299 are due to arrive at Earth later today.
Bumpy magnetic conditions and Kp6/7 moderate auroras are likely and could come with quakes.
The forecast period may be extended.