Aotearoa Summary. 12 August 2026 - 28 August 2026
Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadecs, Offshore East Cape. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Whakatane, Kawerau, Eastern Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Matawai, Gisborne, Mahia, Hawkes Bay, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Masterton, Northwest Arm Te Anau, West of Snares Islands. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Taranaki Bight, Southern Wairarapa, Southern Cook Strait, Cape Campbell, Pyke River, Cascade River, South of Haast. Possible minor steam eruption Ruapehu. The forecast may be modified or abandoned depending on the strength and magnetic orientation of incoming spaceweather. Update. 11 August 10.00pm The forecasted spaceweather is still set to arrive late on 12 August but quakes are already ominously active. A significant quake swarm has set in West of Whakatane in the Edgecumbe, Matata area. Low magnitude quakes are active along the East Coast and down to Taupo. Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu picked up with yesterdays NW Cape Runaway 7.17pm 4.8 after fading a little since the 220km deep 5 August South of Kermadecs 6.3. Unfortunately the Colombia 7.4 quake arrived early today with collapsed buildings and many fatalities. Despite the big quake, the period still may be volcanic. Rotorua, Taupo, Puysegur Point are added to Mag 4 risk locations. 11 August. San del Palmar/Colombia 7.4 12.34am 10km West of Whakatane 4.1 6.25pm +swarm Update. 14 August 1.00pm Weak spaceweather from an erupting solar filament arrived very late 11 August with geomagnetic conditions barely reaching mild Kp5 storming. Local quakes have been very busy and matching risk locations well. Bay of Plenty, Rotorua and East Coast North Island are busy but magnitudes have remained below Mag 4. The 11 August West of Whakatane 4.1 has developed into an ongoing Mag 2 swarm. Kermadecs are very active with a Mag 5.6 near Raoul Island and a strong deep quake swarm at the Louisville Volcanic Chain juncture. Volcanic tremor continues at Ruapehu despite seismologists reporting low tremor. Quakes are too busy and volcanic tremor too high to conclude the wider July-August period is over. Stronger new spaceweather needs to arrive to increase quake magnitude. Geomagnetic conditions are still weakly conducive for quakes. An isolated Mag 4 quake remains possible next day. 12 August. West of Whakatane Mag 2 swarm South Sandwich Islands 6.0 11.47pm 14 August. 200km NE Raoul Island 5.6 5.39am Summary. 12-27 August 2026. Local quakes were busy during the period but below Mag 4. Volcanic Plateau was active as expected following the deep Kermadecs Ridge 6.3 on 5 August. Despite quakes moving on from New Zealand, globally it was a very busy period. The 15 August Flores Sea 7.7 shook up the region and made news with collapsed buildings. The quake took attention away from the Northern Sumatra 6.9 just 14 hours later. Luckily the quake was deep with no damage at the surface. 16 August brought the Sola, Northern Vanuatu 6.1 and Mag 4 in New Zealand. Overall the period contained double Mag 7 quakes in Colombia and Indonesia and several Mag 6 quakes. Volcanos were active during the period with several ongoing eruptions at Etna, Kilauea, Krakatau, Kliuchevskoi. A moderate Earth directed coronal mass ejection from AR4513 on 25 August is likely to reach Earth early on 29 August with Kp5/6 geomagnetic storms. A new forecast will be posted. 11 August. San del Palmar/Colombia 7.4 12.34am 10km West of Whakatane 4.1 6.25pm +swarm 12 August. South Sandwich Islands 6.0 11.47pm 15 August. Flores Sea 7.7 9.58am Northern Sumatra 6.9 10.54pm 16 August. Vanuatu/Sola 6.1 3.20pm NW Arm Te Anau 4.2 8.32pm 17 August. 15km NE Taumarunui 4.3 12.45am 21 August. Peru/NW Arequipa 6.7 6.00am 22 August. Scotia Sea 6.2 8.22pm 24 August. South Hokkaido 6.0 1.44am 25 August. Banda Sea 6.0 2.10am 26 August. Lower Kaipo River 4.8 12.26am Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2026 |
