Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 29 December 2014 - 1 January 2015

Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 6+ risk areas are East Cape to Southern Kermadec Islands. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Hawkes Bay, Northern Wairarapa, Fiordland. Update. 31 December, 2014. The forecast period is now extended to 1 January, 2015. Watch out for Kermadecs quake action. Possible eruption of Raoul Island following days. Summary. This forecast was a success. Quakes on the western side of Aotearoa on 28 Dec. but no Mag 4. Strong activity south of Fiordland and Kermadecs but under Mag 6 although big quake just to the north. The big news is the eruption of Hunga Ha'apai. Tongan fishermen saw an eruption on 19 December. The volcano went off with a bang on 24-25 December. White plumes were visible from Tonga until at least 1 January. Hunga Ha'apai fits the volcano forecast profile for 20-27 Dec. 30 Dec. South of Snares Islands 4.7. 31 Dec. Kermadecs 4.8, 5.2; South of Fiji 6.1 1 Jan. South of Fiordland 4.2, Kermadecs 4.8