Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 7 February 2015

Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 5+ risk areas are East Cape. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are North Wairarapa. This forecast is the extension of the 1-5 February forecast. Summary 1-5 Feb and 7 Feb. This forecast had some great successes and some great failures. The successes were 1. The early forecasted activtiy in Vanuatu and Kermadecs. 2. Volcanoes. Strong eruptions of Etna 1-2 Feb ; Piton de la Fournaise 4 Feb; up to 20 other active global volcanoes. Bardarbunga (Iceland) is still the big daddy, pouring out a 100m3/sec river of lava unremittingly since it erupted on 29 Aug 2014. The seismic signal on Ruapehu and White Island increased on 5 Feb but no eruption. No info available for Yasur. The forecasted NZ quake activity never really came. All forecasted areas showed increases but very weak. The 7 Feb posting should have been posted for 6 Feb as promised on 3 Feb (see Facebook ) ....messy. 1 Feb. Vanuatu 5.8, Solomons 5.0, 5.3; Kermadecs 4.8, Argentina 6.3, Yasur 5.0 3 Feb. Vanuatu 5.4 4 Feb. Kermadecs 5.4, 4.9, Wilberforce 3.8 5 Feb. Kermadecs 5.4, 4.6. 6 Feb. East of East Cape 4.1, Gisborne 4.6, 4.5. Tolaga Bay 4.0, North Wairarapa 3.7. 7 Feb. Hawera 3.7, Wilberforce 3.7