Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 17 February 2015 - 20 February 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are Fiordland, Taranaki, Taranaki Bight, East Cape. Global Mag 6+ risk areas are North of Sumatra, Myanmar/China. Global confidence=low. Lunar modulation may centre this activtiy around low tide. An initial shock on 17 Feb may give way to stronger, tidal, widespread conditions on 19-20 Feb. Update 1120 NZST 16 Feb.(see Facebook) Global risk areas are now changed. Mag 6+ risk areas are Eastern Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu. Global confidence =low. Possibility of increased activity on Bardarbunga (Iceland) later in the forecast period. Confidence = low. Summary. 16 Feb. Bundaberg, Australia 5.0, Christchurch 3.8. 17 Feb. South Taranaki Bight 4.4 USGS, East of East Cape 5.2, Kermadecs 4.8, South Sandwich Islands 6.2, Japan 6.9. 18 Feb. Solomon Islands 5.9, 5.4. 19 Feb. South of Fiordland (Macquarie) 5.1, NE of East Cape 4.7 USGS, West Taranaki Bight 3.7, Vanuatu 6.3, Japan 6.3. 21 Feb. East Cape 4.1, Kermadecs 5.3, Japan 6.0. 22 Feb. Taranaki 4.1. This very successful forecast was a combination of solar factors heavily modulated by a big lunar perigee and new moon.Quakes arrived on cue 17 Feb with a big global thump. The Australian Plate started to move on 16 Feb, prompting the late global location correction to Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. The given western locations in the local forecast fitted perfectly this time and were tidal. A big movement of the Australian Plate late 19 Feb coincided with dramatic power ups of Cyclones Lam and Marcia from Cat 1 to Cat 4/5 and back again in just a few hours, befuddling the meteorologists.(What happens below the ground also happens above it) Marcia was the furthest south of any major Queensland storm for decades. Many erupting volcanoes. Colima, Sinabung. No big eruption of Bardarbunga.