Forecast for 24 February 2015 - 27 February 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are Bay of Plenty, Taranaki, Taranaki Bight, Cook Strait, Fiordland. Global Mag 6+ risk areas are Kermadec Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Andes south of Titicaca. Global confidence=low. Global activity is more likely very late in the period. Global volcanoes active, Ambrym, Colima. NZ volcanoes quiet. The Mag 5.2 east of Coromandel last night occurred during the early part of the forecast period but before a forecast could be posted. A forecast map is now posted on the Facebook link. Other info on Facebook/ Roary Arbon. Summary. 23 Feb. East of Coromandel 5.2 USGS, 24 Feb. Cook Strait 3.6, Andes 5.4. 25 Feb. West of Ruapehu 3.6, Taranaki Bight 3.6, East of East Cape 3.9. 26 Feb. Awatere Valley 4.6, Fiordland 4.8, 4.5, 4.0; North of White Island 4.8, Tonga 5.4, 5.0. 27 Feb. Ruapehu 4.0. 28 Feb. Wanganui 4.0?, North of White Island 4.5, Flores Sea 7.0 This was a succesful forecast and turned out to be a busy little forecast period. The East of Coromandel 5.2 came late on 23 Feb but before a forecast could be posted. 24/25 Feb went Mag 3+ with much of the activity around the forecasted Taranaki Bight/ Cook Strait areas. On 26 Feb Fiordland, Marlborough and Bay of Plenty went off followed by residual Central North Island quakes on 27/28 Feb. Global forecast locations were messy. Tonga and Andes got to Mag 5.4, not big news. The deep Flores Sea 7.0 wasn't felt at the surface unless you were a whale. Volcanoes are still huge. Confirmation is through for a big eruption of Ambrym (Vanuatu) on 21 Feb, fitting the 17-20 Feb forecast profile. Apparently nearby Ambae also erupted but on a lesser scale.Colima (Mexico) and Shiveluch (Kamchatka) had big eruptions on 28 Feb. Merapi (Java) became active on 27 Feb...yet another player. Interesting news is that the seismologists in Iceland are saying the eruption of Bardarbunga which has lasted six months and is the largest for three hundred years on the island is now over.

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