Forecast for 1 March 2015 - 4 March 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are Bay of Plenty, Taupo, East Cape, North Wairarapa, Fiordland. Mag 5+ risk areas are Kermadec Islands, Vanuatu, South of Fiordland. Mag 6+ risk areas are Marianas Islands, Southern Chile. Global location confidence=low. Global volcanic activity may increase near the end or soon after the period. NZ volcanoes quiet. Quake activity may begin with a global shock followed by quieter conditions then increasing again toward the end of the period. The forecast period may be extended. Forecast map is now on Facebook link. Update. 1420 NZST, 2 March. South Wairarapa is now added to Mag 4+ risk areas. Forecast Update. 2230NZST 4 March. The forecast period is now extended to 5 March. Driving conditions have been strong since the start of the period but ominously few quakes, locally or globally. What action there has been has come exactly in the forecasted locations though. Location is always the more difficult part of any forecast, timing the easier part. The forecast period may be extended to 6 March. Forecast Update. The forecast period is now extended to 6 March. Driving conditions are still present but global and local activity remains quiet. Summary. This forecast got messy near the end but otherwise was a moderate success. Local and global quakes were ominously absent during the early part of the period despite strong driving conditions. Extensions were added for 5-6 March...still no action. 7 March brought late action. Global Mag 5/6 forecast areas were all a flop except for Southern Chile which produced moderate quake action and the eruption of Villarrica...right in the zone. 1 March. North of White Island 4.4, Chch 3.2. 2 March. White Island 4.1, Castlepoint 3.8, Kermadecs 4.7, 4.7; Southern Chile 5.0 3 March. Chile 5.3, Sumatra 6.2. 4 March. Fiordland 3.6, Kermadecs 4.8, Chile 5.3, 5.0. 6 March. Chile 5.3. 7 March. Taumarunui 5.0

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