Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 14 March 2015 - 21 March 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Taranaki, Taranaki Bight, Fiordland. Global Mag 6+ risk areas are Solomon Islands, Caribbean, Indonesia. Global confidence = low. Volcanoes may become active near the end or soon after the forecast period. Caribbean, Colombia (Reventador), Indonesia (Damar). Location confidence = low. NZ volcanoes quiet. A global shock or series of shocks on 14-15 March may be followed by increasing activity in NZ after 15 March. Lunar modulation may cause quakes to become widespread and near low tide from 19 March. Update 18 March. A major geomagnetic storm is ongoing. Quake drivng conditions are very strong. Lunar conditions are also very strong for the next couple of days. Watch out for a big global quake. NZ is also a possibility. North Wairarapa is now added to Mag 4+ risk areas. All other areas are unchanged. Update 20 March. Kermadec Islands are now added to Mag 6+ risk areas. Summary. The passage of sunspot AR12297 made this a very stormy forecast period. Cyclones Pam, Nathan and Olwyn powered up early in the period. Nathan re-powered late in the period. The big St Patricks Day solar storm came courtesy of AR12297, the angry sunspot hurling out some powerful flares. Global and local quake activity picked up with AR12297 but luckily no major shock. Early local quake activity didn't get as big as forecasted but much Mag 3+ activity was in the forecasted locations, particularly Taumarunui. On 18 March quakes became widespread and tidal with the big lunar perigee, many quakes falling just below Mag 4. Global quake locations were a moderate success. Indonesia and Solomon Islands active. The Caribbean was quiet but nearby Mexico active. The addition of Kermadec Islands worked, going off early on 22 March. Volcanoes became active on 18 March, many minor eruptions on 20 March. 13 March. Eastern Taranaki Bight 4.3, 3.00pm. 15 March. Taumarunui 3.8, East of Taihape 3.7. 16 March. Sulawesi (Indonesia) 6.0, New Britain (Solomons) 6.0, Taumarunui 3.5. 18 March. North Canterbury 4.0, East of East Cape 4.4, Molucca Sea 6.2. 19 March. Richmond Range 3.9, Lake Coleridge 3.7, Chile 6.2. 20 March. Kahurangi 3.5, Murupara 3.5, Fiordland 3.8, Kermadecs 4.8. 21 March. Auckland 3.7, Wanganui 3.4. 22 March. Kermadecs 5.4 USGS 2.13am