Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 23 April 2015 - 26 April 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, North Canterbury, Fiordland. Mag 6+ risk areas are South of Fiordland, Vanuatu, Fiji, Kermadec Islands. Activity may begin slowly and build to strong conditions late in the period. Global volcanic activity may increase near the end or soon after the period. NZ volcanoes quiet. Forecast map posted on Facebook link. Update. 22 April. Bismarck Sea is now added to Mag 6+ risk areas. Summary. 20 April. Taiwan 6.4, 6.1; Sumatra 6.0 23 April. Cape Campbell 5.1 (4.7 USGS), 4.7, 4.4, Kermadecs 5.2, south of Kermadecs 4.7. 24 April. South Awatere Valley 6.2, 4.1. 25 April. Haida Gwai 6.2, Nepal 7.8. 26 April. Nepal 6.7. 27 April. south of Kermadecs 4.7, North of White Island 4.0, Northwest of Rotorua 4.0. This forecast worked well. On 23 April a Cook Strait 5.1 foretold stronger action expected on 25-26 April. The big Awatere Valley 6.2 came earlier than expected on 24 April. The quake, widely felt across central NZ was often described as long and rolling. No damage due to the remote location and 55km? depth. Very accurate location success. A forecasting mistake allowed for all SW Pacific including south of Fiordland to go Mag 6+ during the period but not NZ. Big global quakes came on 25-26 April. Haida Gwai and Nepal. Nepal has been levelled. 3000 dead so far. This Service hopes earthquake forecasts will one day help to reduce such devastation. See Facebook link for summary map. Volcano Summary. This forecast worked well and turned out to be big action. Kilauea became very active during the period. The lava lake had been rising slowly since 18 March, just after the 16-17 March forecast period.The lava lake then suddenly rose 25 meters in a week from 22 April and overflowed....big quakes, big volcanoes. Sinabung, Indonesia erupted on 28 April, burning up what was left of an evacuated village. Calbuco, Chile erupted on 30 April, in line with expectations but not as big this time. Piton de la Fournaise is showing renewed seismicity. Geonet have reported strong seismicity at Ruapehu recently.