Forecast for 30 April 2015 - 2 May 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Southern Awatere Valley. Mag 5+ risk areas are Southern Kermadec Islands. Mag 6+ risk areas are Nepal, Bismarck Sea, South of Japan, Mexico. Mag 6+ location confidence = low. Activity may be stronger in the Northern Hemisphere. Global volcanoes may become active near the end of the period. The period is likely to be extended. Forecast map on Facebook link. Summary. 28 April. NW of New Plymouth 4.1. 29 April. North of East Cape 4.3, 4.0; Ruatoria 4.0, Fiji 6.2, Kermadecs 5.1. 30 April. New Britain 6.7, 6.8. 2 May. South of Japan 5.7. 3 May. South Clarence Valley 3.8, Tauranga 4.9, Arthurs Pass 4.2. 4 May. Wanaka 5.8, South of Kermadecs 4.4. 5 May. Taranaki 4.0, Wanaka 4.0, Havelock 4.1, Kermadecs 5.0, New Britain 7.4. There was some unforecasted activity on 28-29 April. The forecast period started well globally, South of Japan and the big double quake on the edge of the Bismarck Sea. Great success. Local conditions were quiet however so the forecast extension wasn't posted... a big mistake. On 3-5 May widespread strong conditions arrived (Murphy's Law) with poor location success. Quake activity since Nepal and Awatere Valley has been consistently high. This Service has forecasted all around the activity with limited success. Volcanic activity during the period was unsurprisingly high. Calbuco (Chile) erupted for a second time on 30 April but weaker than the first eruption. Kilauea is very inflated. The lava lake overflowed, built a new and higher rim and then overflowed again. Piton de la Fournaise, the big shield volcano on Reunion, has been building since the Nepal quake and may erupt soon. Many other volcanoes active.

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