Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 6 May 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 5+ risk areas are Fiordland, Wanaka, Haast. Mag 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Awatere Valley, North Canterbury. Update 7 May. The forecast period is now extended to 7-8 May. Watch out for deep action in Western Bay of Plenty, King Country and possibly Taranaki. Forecasts are shortened to day by day at the moment due to the unsettled tectonic conditions. This morning's Milford Sound 5.0 has provided some forecasting redemption from the last forecast but it's still a rollercoaster. Watch out for Mag 6+ in Vanuatu. Summary. 5 May. New Britain 7.4. 7 May. NW of Milford Sound 5.0, Kermadecs 5.0, 4.4; Solomon Islands 7.2. 8-9 May. Mag 3+ NZ. New Plymouth, Fiordland, White Island. 10 May. Taumarunui 3.8. This was a very successful forecast. The 7 May Bougainville 7.2 was just outside the forecasted Vanuatu zone. World media and seismologists have completely failed to note recent major quake activity in this area... Locally the Milford Sound 5.0 early on 7 May was a big location success. On 8-9 May conditions were Mag 3+. The forecasted western North Island zones proved successful but later and shallower than expected. New Plymouth swarm and Taumarunui 3.8. Volcanoes were active everywhere during the period. Japanese seismologists are warning people off Hakone. Bulusan (Philippines) erupted on 7 May. Kilauea is the big news. The lava lake is regularly overflowing and building a new and higher rim. Nearby Pu'u'O'o is also spewing lava now. Inflation at Kilauea has steadied in the last couple of days as expected but should increase when the next quake spell arrives on 12 May.