Forecast for 12 May 2015 - 14 May 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, South Clarence Valley, Hanmer Springs, Wanaka. Mag 5+ risk areas are Fiordland, Haast. Mag 6+ risk areas are South of Japan, Nepal, Fiji, Kermadec Islands. Global location confidence = low. Activity may be stronger later in the period and centered around low tide. Volcanoes may become active later in the period. Hakone (Japan), Bulusan (Philippines). The lava lake at Kilauea may start rising early in the period. NZ volcanoes quiet. Map on Facebook link. Summary. This forecast was a big sucess. Local quakes were relatively quiet during the period given the heavy conditions but good location success. Globally Nepal, Japan and Kermadec Islands gave excellent location results. A success for forecasting but tempered by the loss of many more lives in Nepal. Sakurajima erupted during the period. Voclanoes in the Western Pacific are very hot. The lava lake at Kilauea fell 20m during the period. Deluges in NZ, Wellington flooded today...what happens under the ground also happens above. 11 May. Nelson 4.3. 12 May North Canterbury 4.0, Nepal 7.4. 13 May Hollyford Valley 3.7, North of East Cape 4.1, 4.0; Japan 6.8. 14 May South of Kermadecs 5.2

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