Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 15 May 2015 - 18 May 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Taumarunui, South Clarence Valley, North Canterbury, Wanaka, Fiordland. Mag 6+ risk areas are Kermadec Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu, Nepal, North of Philippines, South of Japan, Japan, Kuril Islands, Sea of Okhotsk, Ionian Sea, Mexico. Possibility of Mag 7+ in Western Pacific. Global location confidence = low. Lunar influence may modulate quakes to low tide. Volcanoes may become active on or after 17-18 May especially in the Western Pacific. Sakurajima, Bulusan, Hakone, Sinabung, Karangetang, Etna, Piton de la Fournaise. Kilauea may inflate again. Kilauea confidence = low. NZ volcanoes quiet. Forecast map on Facebook link. Update. 15 May. 1230NZST. Activity in all areas is expected to be higher on 17-18 May. Update 15 May 2200NZST Cass is now added to Mag 4+ risk areas. Location confidence = low. Update 16 May 1730NZST. West Coast USA, Vancouver Island, Oregon, Northern California is now added to Mag 6+ risk areas confidence = low. Update 19 May 0930NZST Driving conditions arrived last night for the expected 17-18 May quake action..very late. There have been no quakes yet. The forecast period is now extended to 19 May. All magnitudes and locations are unchanged. Kilauea is unchanged. The lava lake is still about 50 meters down and seismicity high. Piton de la Fournaise is now in eruption. More info on Roary Arbon/Facebook. Summary. 15 May. Seddon 4.6. 18 May South of Kermadecs 5.1, 4.8; NE of East Cape 4.0, Sumatra 6.0. 19 May. South of Kermadecs 4.9, Vanuatu 5.8. This forecast was a mixed success. The period was extended to 19 May. Kermadecs and Seddon were bumpy but other areas were very quiet. Global activity was also ominously quiet. There may be delayed release in the immediatley following forecast or the energy may have released volcanically. Global volcanoes were very active through the period. Etna erupted on 15 May and Piton de la Fournaise on 17 May. Lava was still flowing today and may yet reach the ocean. Other volcanoes were either hot or in minor eruption. Kilauea inflation and lava lake levels grew slightly and then stabilised. Great volcano forecasting success.