Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 24 May 2015 - 27 May 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Taumarunui, Taupo, Rotorua, Hawkes Bay, Taranaki, Eketahuna, Seddon, South Clarence Valley, North Canterbury, Christchurch, East Arthurs Pass, Haast, Wanaka, Fiordland. Mag 6+ risk areas are Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Philippines, Pacific Coast USA, South of Titicaca. Global confidence= low. Mag 7+ risk area Fiji. Possibility Mag 7+ SW Pacific. Global volcanoes active through the period. Kilauea, Piton de la Fournaise, Sakurajima, Hakone, Bulusan, Lokon. NZ volcanoes quiet. Forecast map on Facebook link. Update 26 May, 1300NZST. Due to quieter than expected driving conditions the forecast is now low confidence. Tokyo and Tonga have had moderate quakes so far. Volcanoes still hot on Pacific Rim. Galapagos Islands had big eruption today. Update 27 May. Kilauea has quietened but tow big shileld volcanoes, Piton de la Fournaise and Wolf are erupting. Volcanoes are globally very hot. Summary. 24 May. Mid Atlantic Ridge 6.3. 25 May. Tonga 5.7, Kermadecs 5.3, Tolyo 5.1. 26 May North of East Cape 4.3, Fiordland 4.0, South of Lake Titicaca 5.6. 27 May. Northeast of Rotorua 3.8, North of White Island 4.0. This forecast was a limited quake success and a big volcano success. Quake driving conditions faded early in the period. Quakes were relatively small but locations fitted the forecast profile, locally and globally. Volcanic activity during the forecast period was substantial. Piton de la Fournaise erupted continuously and Wolf on the Galapagos island of Isabela erupted late on 25 May, throwing 50 meter high fountains of lava. Kilauea on the other hand is ominously deflating. The Pangai (Tonga) 5.7 may be the source of an upcoming eruption there. The Pacific is hot.