Forecast for 31 May 2015 - 1 June 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Rotorua, Taupo, West of Taranaki, South Clarence Valley, North Canterbury, Arthurs Pass, Hokitika, Franz Josef, Wanaka, Haast, Fiordland. Mag 6+ risk areas are Japan, South of Japan, Pacific Coast USA, Ecuador, South of Lake Titicaca, Solomon Islands, Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Philippines, Tonga, Kermadec Islands. Global confidence = low. Activity in the Northern Hemisphere is more likely,. Global volcanoes may remain active. Western Pacific higher risk. Shindake, Hakone, Sakurajima, Piton de la Fournaise, Wolf, Kilauea. NZ volcanoes quiet. Note. The forecast is posted 31 May 1400NZST for the remainder of the forecast period. 31 May North of East Cape 4.5 (?) 0013 NZST; Fox Glacier 4.1, 0652NZST; South of Japan 6.2 0649NZST. Map on Facebook link. Update. 31 May. 2100NZST. Quake conditions are fading. All areas are now reduced to low confidence. Volcanic activity is quiet at the moment. There is conflicitng data coming from Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (USGS) at the moment. They are reporting Kilauea to be in eruption. Thanks. Summary. 29 May-1 June. 29 May. Alaska 6.8, California 5.1. 30 May. South of Japan 7.8, West Taranaki Bight 5.5 EMSC, San Francisco 4.8. 31 May. North of East Cape 4.5, 4.1; Fox Glacier 4.1, Tonga 5.8, South of Japan 6.2. 1 June. Dunedin 4.7, Gulf of California 4.6, North of East Cape 3.9, West of Oregon 5.8, 5.8; Kermadecs 4.7. 2 June. Kermadecs 4.7, West of Oregon 6.0, North Pole 5.2. This forecast was a big global success, good location and timing. The period started with big rumbles in Alaska and along the Pacific Northwest Coast. Forecasted big Northern Hemisphere quakes were being confirmed. NZ and South Pacific were quiet. On 30 May the period grew inevitably bigger. Japan 7.8 was given a deep rumble. Califorinia also had moderate quakes. On 1 May action quietened but still with big residual quakes near Oregon. Moderate NZ quakes picked up late in the period. Japan had a big volcanic eruption at Shindake. Nearby Sakurajima also erupted. These eruptions were successes from the 24-27 May forecast period. Volcanoes were otherwise quiet or no data available. KIlauea is in minor eruption apparently.(?)

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