Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 18 June 2015 - 19 June 2015

Quake activity may increase. Mag 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupo, Taumarunui, Fiordland, Glenorchy. Mag 6+ risk areas are Solomon Islands, Philippines, Molucca Sea, Japan. Global volcanoes active. Sinabung, Hakone, Bulusan, Asama, Fuego, Cotopaxi. NZ volcanoes quiet. Forecast map on Facebook link. Update 18 June 2330 NZST. Chile north of Aconcagua is added to Mag 6+ risk areas. Summary. 17 June. North of White Island 4.1, Waipukurau 4.1, Rotorua 3.7, Glenorchy 3.8, Kermadecs 4.6. 18 June. South Atlantic Ocean 7.0, Kermadecs 4.7, Hawkes Bay 3.8. 20 June. North Pacific Ocean 6.0, South of Aconcagua 6.4. The 17 June preliminary forecast offered no locations (see Facebook). A detailed forecast was posted on 18 June but by then local quakes were largely past (Murphy's Law). New forecast area, Glenorchy was hit on 17 June. Mt Earnslaw 3.8. Great location success. Three big oceanic quakes and the eruption of Sinabung highlighted the period. North of Aconcagua (Chile) was added as a Mag 6+ risk on 18 June.(see Facebook) The 20 June offshore Concepcion 6.4, 500km south of Aconcagua was good location and timing success. Luckily no tsunamis. Shield volcanoes Kilauea, Piton de la Fournaise and Galapagos have gone back to normal. Kilauea's lava lake has dropped 50 meters below the new higher rim, formed early May. Japanese and Indonesian volcanoes are very hot. Sinabung is still inflating. Global quake activity has been constant since 9 June and earlier since the 25 April Nepal 7.8. The first good evidence supporting the late 2013 outlook for bigger quakes, spaced apart. Summary map on Facebook link.