Forecast for 7 July 2015 - 15 July 2015

Click to Enlarge
Quake activity may increase. Mag 5+ risk areas are East Cape 5pm, Bay of Plenty 5pm. Mag 4+ risk areas are Rotorua, Taupo, Taumarunui, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, South Clarence Valley, North Canterbury, Fox Glacier, Wanaka, Fiordland. Lunar modulation may center quakes around low tide. NZ volcanoes quiet. Update 6 July, 2200NZST. Ahuriri Valley is added to Mag 4+ risk areas.
Update 7 July. Quake conditions are strong today after yesterdays slight lull. South of the Kermadec Islands continues to go off. Two East Cape quakes were lunar modulated, going off at 5.36pm and 6.21pm. More action seems likely. Wairakei Geothermal field is boiling hot, quake swarms reported by Geonet. Updated map.

Update. 10 July.
The forecast period is extended to 12 July.
Bay of Plenty has been quake swarming last night, right at the end of the period.
New weaker driving conditions are set to arrive on 11 July and may trigger more action, especially in Central North Island locations Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, East Cape, Taupo which are volcanically hot.
White Island may give a steam eruption. Updated Map.

Update. 14 July.
There has been unforecasted quake action. Quake driving conditions have been elevated since the end of the forecast period on 12 July. There could be more action next day as conditions gradually go flat. (see Facebook)
Northwest of Levin 4.3, Eketahuna 4.2

Summary 7-15 July.
This forecast was a success, major quake action just north of New Zealand justifying the Mag 5+ addition to the forecast map.
The period was active and very long, eventually running on until 15 July.
Pacific quake locations were very good although quakes faded near the end.
Indonesian volcanoes were hot as forecasted. Raung, Sinabung, Gamalama, Sangeang Api, Dukono, Sirung erupted and others produced plumes. Colima (Mexico) erupted. Japan and Piton de la Fournaise were apparently quiet. No visual sightings for possible steam eruption at White Island 15 July. No data for Wolf.
Extreme weather made much news during the forecast period. New Zealand and Australia were very cold and North Pacific Ocean held six tropical cyclones at once. Meteorologists were forecasting increasing storm intensity from 12 July but due to weakening quake and weather driving conditions after this date, storm intensity faded.

Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2020