Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary 20 August 2015 - 22 August 2015

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Fiji, Celebes Sea, Honshu, California, Mexico.
Non Pacific risk areas are Caribbean Sea, Hindu Kush, Iran, Cyprus.
Quakes are more likely in the Northern Hemisphere.
Volcanic activity may increase from 22 August. Sakurajima, Cotopaxi, Sinabung.
Volcano confidence = low.
Typhoons Goni and Atsani may maintain strength as they approach land, contrary to standard meteorological forecasts.

Summary.
Changing long term solar activity made this forecast both a failure and a learning curve.
Quake and volcanic activity was very quiet.
The low confidence volcano forecast was justified. Volcanoes are cooling.
Typhoon intensity forecasts were partially successful, maybe better than standard meteorological forecasts.
20 August. Molucca Sea 5.8