Pacific Summary. 13 October 2015 - 19 October 2015
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Kermadec Islands, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Banda Sea, Celebes Sea, Sumatra, West Java, Kuril Islands, Colombia, Chile, Afghanistan. Location confidence =low. Possibility for Mag 7+ quake. The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise has increased from 4 October and may continue. Pacific volcanoes have been quiet for three weeks and may become active later in the period. Kamchatka Peninsula, Fuego, Colombia, Peru, Quimsachata. Note. Apologies. This forecast is posted late here but early on Facebook/Roary Arbon. Didn't realise until 14 October. Update. 15 October. Vulcanologists on Reunion have confirmed the eruption of Piton de la Fournaise has increased substantially from 12 October. An undersea eruption may be occurring in the Kermadecs or Tonga. No visual confirmation. White Island is hot today and likely to stay so for a few days. Hopefully Geonet seismologists will fly out there and make some observations. Banda Sea volcano Batu Tara is active as is nearby Dukono. These are quake forecast areas. Global quakes were quiet today as they tend to be in the middle of long forecast periods. The period may be turning volcanic. Update. 16 October. Global quakes were quiet today. Lake Titicaca, Kamchatka Peninsula, Mediterranean Sea are added to Mag 6+ risk areas. The forecast period has become very volcanic. The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise had increased substantially during the period. The eruption began on 24 August. Volcanic activity may increase at Etna, Kamchatka Peninsula, Dukono, Bata Taru, Colombia, Peru, Chile. An undersea eruption may be taking place in the Kermadecs or Tonga. White Island is active and may have a phreatic (minor) eruption. Update. 18 October 2335NZST. New Mag 6+ risk areas are added for 19 October. Southern Chile, Vanuatu. Global quakes were below Mag 6 during the middle part of the forecast period. South of Lake Titicaca was the highest and good location success. Kermadecs, Tonga and White Island heated up on 17 October. Activity has slowed today but may increase on 19 October. The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise continues strongly. Indonesian volcanoes are venting and activity may increase on 19 October. 18 October. South of Lake Titicaca 5.9 Summary. This forecast had many successes. Kuril Islands 6.0 were in the zone. The addition of Lake Titicaca and Vanuatu on 17 October worked. Vanuatu 7.3 was the first Mag 7 quake since the 17 September Chile 8.3. Timing was a bit wobbly. Long forecast periods are difficult to put accurate cutoff dates on and can be quiet in the middle. The forecast period was very volcanic. Pion de la Fournaise gave a big spurt of lava on 17 October and then went to sleep. A Kermadecs/Tonga undersea eruption never made news but was possible near the Hihifo, Tonga 6.0 on 19 October. Seismologists noted White Island getting hot during the period but apparently no minor eruption. Widespread light ash plumes were were recorded at many Indonesian volcanoes on 17 October. Twin typhoons Koppu and Champi reached Cat 4+ on 17 October. Koppu has given the Philippines a drenching and taken forty lives at least. 14 October. Kuril Islands 6.0 18 October. South of Lake Titicaca 5.9 19 October. Hihifo, Tonga 6.0 20 October. Philippines 5.8 21 October. Vanuatu 7.3 Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
