Pacific Summary. 10 November 2015 - 11 November 2015
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Alaska, West of Oregon, Guatemala, Colombia, North Chile, Fiji, Kermadec Islands, Sumatra.
Volcanic activity may increase. West Indonesian volcanoes are very hot.
Rinjani, Semeru, Bromo, Sinabung, Lascar, Fuego.
Note: This forecast was posted after the Alaska 6.3. Earlier postings were for Northern Hemisphere activity.
Update. 10 November.
Etna is added to possible erupting volcanoes.
10 November. Alaska 6.3
11 November. Chile 6.9, 6.9; Kermadecs 5.0
This forecast was messy at the beginning but a huge success in the end.
The 9 November Pacific Update had Alaska as a risk area and pointed to quakes moving into the Northern Hemisphere. Frustratingly, a detailed forecast wasn't posted until after the Alaska 6.3.
Twin 6.9 aftershocks from the 17 September 8.3 arrived on 11 November, just four days after the 6.8, 6.2, 6.0 sequence.
Pacific location success has been steadily improving and confidence levels slowly rising. Given the size of the Pacific, the mixed data quality and limited forecasting resources, this is great news. Picking up the Indonesian quakes last week was a real confidence booster.
Volcano forecasting success was very limited.
All listed volcanoes were hot but only minor eruptions.
Sicilian vulcanologists expected the rapidly inflating Etna to erupt but like other volcanoes it suddenly deflated.
Yasur (Vanuatu) has been throwing big bombs and ash and is dangerous for tourists.
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