Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 20 December 2015 - 22 December 2015

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Murchison, Kaikoura, North Canterbury, Fiordland.
Volcanoes quiet. Possible minor steam eruption White Island.

Update. 20 December.
20 December. Hawkes Bay 4.7
Kaikoura is added as Mag 5+ risk area. 8am, 8pm. Lunar modulation.
Heavy quake driving conditions have set in and New Zealand is in the zone.
The volcanic conditions form early December seem to have ended and switched to quakes.
Aotearoa quakes last few weeks have been quiet but may be turning.

Update. 21 December.
20 December. South Awatere Valley 4.3? South of Kermadecs 5.5?
The forecast period is extended to 22 December.
Very heavy quake driving conditions continue today.
There is some confusing data being posted by Geonet.

Summary.
20 December. Hawkes Bay 4.7, 11.02pm. Low tide 8.50pm.
South Awatere Valley 4.3, 9.58pm. Low tide 7.00pm.
South of Kermadecs 4.8
21 December. North of East Cape 4.8
A burst of quakes arrived on 20 December, two hours after low tide.
Good timing success, moderate location success.
Local and global quakes never quite matched the strong driving conditions, suggesting a buildup may be underway.
Seismic tremor at White Island was high, along with the quake burst. A steam eruption was possible but no observations to confirm that part of the forecast.