Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 31 December 2015 - 5 January 2016

Click to Enlarge

Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are New Zealand, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Bismarck Sea, Molucca Sea, Philippines, Honshu, Haida Gwai, Guatemala, South of Titicaca, Southern Chile.
Possibility Mag 7+ Pacific.
Volcanoes may become active on 2 January. Kanlaon, Bromo, Fuego, Lascar, Yasur.

Update.
1 January. South of Tasmania 6.3, Kermadecs 5.4, Nicaragua 5.7
Heavy quake driving conditions today. Forecasted locations working so far.
More action seems highly likely next day and 3 January.
Unconfirmed reports are that Vanuatu volcanoes Yasur and Ambrym have gone off. Fuego has also been reported in eruption. More data will arrive next day or two.

Update.
2 January. Kermadecs 5.8
The period is extended to 3 January.
Guadalcanal is added to Mag 6+ risk areas.
SW Pacific is in the action zone.

Summary.
1 January. Southwest of Tasmania 6.3, Nicaragua 5.7, Kermadecs 5.4
2 January. Kermadecs 5.8
4 January. Northeast India 6.7
5 January. Southwest of Japan 5.9
Quakes have rumbled steadily through the period and beyond. Great location success in Kermadecs, Nicaragua, Japan.
The possible Mag 7 never arrived. South America is ominously quiet.
New Zealand as a Mag 6+ risk area was justified. Local quakes have been heavy and frequent last few days and may not be over yet.
Great volcano success. Ambrym, Yasur, Fuego, Momotombo erupted.
Kilauea lava lake is rising.
Heavy pressure and undersea eruption Kermadecs/Tonga? during the period.
Volcanic pressure is high in Java, Flores but no big eruptions during the period.
The period has run into the following forecast period beginning 6 January.