Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 8 February 2016 - 14 February 2016

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Bay of Plenty, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Urewera, East Cape, Cook Strait, Fiordland.
Quakes may be stronger near the end of the period.
Quakes may be modulated around low tide.

Update. 9 February.
8 February. Northeast of East Cape 4.3? Tokomaru Bay 4.2
9 February. South Awatere Valley 5.2 USGS, EMSC. 5.7 Geonet. 1339NZST. Low tide 1200NZST.
Murchison, St Arnaud are added to Mag 4+ risk areas.
Quakes may increase and become lunar modulated as the period progresses.

Update. 10 February.
10 February. South Awatere Valley 4.3 1305NZST. Low tide 1255NZST.
Many quakes today, the largest was an aftershock and was lunar modulated, coming right on low tide.
Geonet are posting confusing data. The 8 February Tokomaru Bay 4.2 seems to be now a much larger East of East Cape 4.7. This agrees with the data from the more reliable United States Geological Survey.
Solar quake driving conditions weakened slightly today but may power up tomorrow.

Update. 11 February.
11 February. South of Kermadecs 5.0, Levin 3.8, Ruahines 3.6, East Cape 3.7.
Quakes were busy today in the North Island but weren't lunar modulated.
Forecasted late quake driving conditions may still arrive so quakes are still possible tomorrow.

Update. 12 February. 2130NZST.
North Canterbury is added to Mag 4+ risk areas.
Local and Pacific quakes were quiet today.
The forecasted late driving condtions have arrived.

Update.13 February. (see Facebook/Roary Arbon)
The forecast period is extended to 14 February.
Quake driving conditions are still present.
Aotearoa quiet today.
The period has become a slow burner so very late quakes are still possible.
New quake driving conditions will arrive late 15 or early 16 February.

Summary.
8 February. Northeast of East Cape 4.3? Tokomaru Bay 4.2 (deleted), East of East Cape 4.7
9 February. South Awatere Valley 5.2 USGS
10 February. South Awatere Valley 4.3. Murchison, St Arnaud added.
11 February. South of Kermadecs 5.0, Levin 3.8
12 February. North Canterbury added.
13 February. Period extended to 14 February.
14 February. Christchurch 5.7, 4.2
This forecast was successful.
Quakes arrived on cue late 8 February.
Geonet deleted the Tokomaru Bay 4.2, reposting it as East of East Cape 4.7, in line with other world seismological observatories.
The decision to leave out Kaikoura as a forecast area was a mistake.
The South Awatere Valley 5.2 was widely felt and an aftershock from the 24 April, 2015 Mag 6.2. That quake was forecasted by this Service.
Quakes were lunar modulated early in the period in line with the 11 February perigee.
The Christchurch 5.7 was a great forecast success, near to the main target areas of Rangiora and Oxford.
This Service believes all Christchurch quakes are aftershocks from the 4 September, 2010 Darfield 7.1.
Christchurch may go quiet on 15 February but a new quake period 16-18 February (maybe extended) may bring renewed Mag 4 activity in Christchurch and Fiordland.
New forecast posted 15 February.