Aotearoa Summary. 6 March 2016 - 11 March 2016

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, South Awatere Valley, Hunter Valley, Fiordland.
Volcanoes quiet.
Quakes may build and become widespread by 9 March.

Update. 7 March 0800NZST.
Quake driving conditions are here.
The forecast period is extended to 7 March.

Update. 8 March
The forecast period is extended to 8 March.
Kaikoura is added to Mag 4+ risk areas.
No Mag 4 quakes so far during the period but quake driving conditions are strong.
Strong lunar conditions are here from 8 March, the period will run until at least 10 March.

Update. 8 March.
The forecast period is extended to 10 March.
Christchurch, Northern Wairarapa are added to Mag 4+ risk areas.
Northwest Arm Lake Te Anau is added as a specific Fiordland Mag 4 location.
Quakes were quiet again today in New Zealand.
Spectacular aurorae were observed from New Zealand and Northern Hemisphere yesterday, making mainstream news.
Strong lunar conditions are here, ominously adding to the strong solar quake conditions.
Quakes may be widespread and centered around low tide.
Christchurch low tide times next days are approximately midday and midnight.

Update. 9 March 2200NZST. (From Facebook/Roary Arbon)
Global and local quakes were relatively quiet today.
No quakes came with the solar eclipse.
Quakes since the start of the period on 6 March have been sparse but this Service is sticking to what it knows works.
10 March will be an interesting day.
Christchurch low tide times are midday and midnight but expect only Mag 4.
Kaikoura and Northwest Arm Te Anau are local hotspots.
All roads lead to Sumatra so hopefully the data is showing only some aftershock activity and not something bigger.

Update. 11 March. 1000NZST.
11 March. Cook Strait 4.6
The forecast period is extended to 11 March.
Despite strong quake driving conditions for several days, quakes have been sparse and the forecast has gone wobbly and now low confidence.
Movement into New Zealand has come this morning, near to high tide.
Solar quake driving conditions are weakening today.
Lunar conditions are strong for next day.
Christchurch is still a possibility for a Mag 4 today.

Summary.
11 March. Cook Strait 4.6
Spectacular auroras on 7 March were widely reported on TV News but eruptions and quakes were sparse.
The 8 March addition of Kaikoura was a good choice. The 11 March Cook Strait 4.6 was just outside the forecast area.
This forecast posted four years ago would have left the forecasters in stunned silence but now there were too many days with no action for the forecast to be a big success despite the Kaikoura addition.
Strong lunar quake conditions had little effect.

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