Pacific Summary. 6 March 2016 - 11 March 2016
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Fiji, Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Bismarck Sea, Banda Sea, Myanmar, Philippines, Kuril Islands, Titicaca. Volcanic activity may increase. Tunguruhua, Momotombo, Telica, Suwanosejima, Alaid, Nevados de Chillan. Activity may build for the next few days. Update. 7 March. Quake driving conditions are here. The forecast period is extended to 7 March. Update 7 March. The forecast period is extended to 8 March. Indian Ocean, Sumatra are added to Mag 6+ risk areas. Strong lunar quake driving conditions will add to strong solar quake driving conditions 8-10 March. Global quakes were ominously quiet today. A buildup is likely underway. Indian Ocean, Sumatra, Myanmar, Vanuatu are hotspots. Possibility for Mag 7+ quake Indian or Pacific Ocean 8-10 March. Update. 8 March. The forecast period is extended to 10 March. All locations and magnitudes are unchanged. Spectacular aurorae were seen USA, Europe, Britain, New Zealand last night. Global quakes were ominously quiet. Volcanoes were relatively quiet. Possibility for Mag 7+ global quake. Indian Ocean, Sumatra, Myanmar, Vanuatu are hotspots. Location confidence = low. Update 11 March 1000NZST. 10 March. Vanuatu 5.2 11 March. Kuril Islands 5.3 The forecast period is extended to 11 March. Southern Mexico is added to Mag 6+ risk areas. Despite strong driving conditions for several days, big quakes have not arrived. Location success has been good although at Mag 5. Volcanic activity picked up on 8 March. Tunguruhua let go with a substantial eruption and a good forecast success. Other volcanoes heated up. Forecast confidence = low. Summary. Despite strong solar and lunar quake and volcano driving conditions during the period, the forecast nearly collapsed. Some good Mag 5 location success late in the period but quakes were sparse. Big quakes never came. Tunguruhua was a good volcano success, the only forecast highlight. Volcanoes generally picked up on 8 March but the period hardly became volcanic. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
