Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 27 March 2016 - 29 March 2016

Click to Enlarge

Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Fiji, Banda Sea, Timor, Sumatra.
Volcanoes quiet.
Forecast confidence = low.

Update. 27 March 2130NZST.
27 March. Tonga 5.3, Timor 4.7, Banda Sea 5.0
Southern Honshu is added to Mag 6+ risk areas.
Southern Honshu/Ryuku Islands are added as volcano risk.
Quakes picked up to Mag 5 today as the forecast period unfolds.
Good location success but the Pacific forecast remains low confidence.

Update. 28 March 2300NZST.
28 March. Aleutian Islands 5.7
The forecast period is extended to 29 March.
Southern Chile is added to Mag 6+ risk areas.
The Aotearoa forecast may be a success but the Pacific forecast is being trashed by lack of activity, low confidence is justified.
Data sets are showing strong potential for activity.
29 March may be quieter with stronger activity following days.

Update. 29 March. 2300NZST.
29 March. Aleutian Islands 5.6, Molucca Sea 5.5
Alaskan volcano Pavlof is the only active Pacific volcano today.
Quakes are below Mag 6.
The potential for quakes is still present and maybe a volcanic period but confidence is now very low until a new quake period starts on 3 April.

Summary.
The low confidence forecast was justified.
No Mag 6 quakes during the forecast period.
Volcanoes showed some activity. Sakurajima, Santiaguito, Momotombo, Fuego, Pavlof erupted.