Pacific Summary. 1 May 2016 - 5 May 2016

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Pacfic Forecast Updated. 30 April-2 May, 2016.
25 April. 1200NZST.
Quake activity may increase.
A detailed forecast will be posted near to the period.
Quake driving conditions have been elevated but under Mag 6 last days.

Update. 29 April 2000NZST. 28 April. Mexico 5.8 29 April. Vanuatu 7.0, Eastern Pacific Ocean 6.6
Quakes were subdued since the end of the latest forecast period until today.
The Vanuatu 7.0 generated a moderate quakestorm into New Zealand. Cook Strait 3.9 was widely felt, Coromandel 4.2 offshore and Mt Cook.
A new forecast period starts late tomorrow and could be interesting.
A detailed forecast will be posted late tonight or early tomorrow. Thanks.

Update. 29 April 2330NZST.
Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Banda Sea, Philippines, Taiwan, Kyushu, Alaska, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Ecuador, Northern Chile.
Volcanic activity may increase. Turrialba, Santiaguito, Fuego.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 1 May 2200NZST.
30 April. Vanuatu 6.0
The forecast period is extended to 2 May.

Moderate quake driving conditions arrived on time. Conditions are still moderate so more action may follow.
Incredibly, despite so many big quakes in Vanuatu last weeks 6.9, 6.7, 6.0, 6.7, 6.4, 6.0, 7.0, 6.0 more action there seems possible.
Volcanoes are simmering. Sakurajima, Turrialba.
More eruptions are possible.

Update. 2 May 1300NZST.
Pacific conditions have switched up to heavy.

Update. 3 May 0030NZST.
2 May. Sumatra 5.9
The forecast period is extended to 3 May.
Quakes were active today but stayed below Mag 6.
Volcanoes were quiet.
Quakes may become infrequent.
Chile is a possible hotspot.

Pacific Update. 3 May 1000NZST.
Guatemalan volcano Saniaguito has let go.
Quake driving conditions today are heavy.
Possibility Mag 7+ Pacific quake 3-4 May. Chile higher risk location. Confidence = low.

Update. 4 May 1200NZST.
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 on 3 May.
Volcanoes are active and some good forecast successes.
Turrialba, Sakurajima, Sinabung, Santiaguito erupting last few days.
See Facebook/Roary Arbon for more volcano news.
Big Pacific quakes are still possible next day.
The forecast period is likely to be extended as perigee approaches on 6 May.

Summary.
30 April. Vanuatu 6.0
5 May. Vanuatu 5.7, Marianas Islands 5.6
Big quakes never came during the period.
Volcanoes were very active. Latin America gave many eruptions and some good forecast redemptions.
Volcano confidence is generally lower than quakes.

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