Aotearoa Summary. 10 May 2016 - 16 May 2016

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Whakatane, Rotorua, Wairoa, Porangahau, Cook Strait, Kekerengu, Christchurch, Fiordland, Snares Islands.
Quakes may start late 9 May.
The forecast period is likely to be extended for several days as quakes build.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 10 May 2030NZST.
9 May. Northeast of White Island 4.2 1926NZST.
10 May. Northeast of White Island 4.7
Quakes arrived late on 9 May.
Quakes are near to undersea volcanoes Tangaroa and the brilliantly named Rumble V.
Quake and volcano driving conditions have been high so the lack of Pacific and Aotearoa quakes is not a very good sign. Action is likely building up.
The forecast period will be extended.

Update. 12 May 0000NZST.
11 May. Christchurch 4.7
The period is extended to 12 May.
South Awatere Valley is added to Mag 4+ risk areas.
Volcanoes quiet.
Quakes have been ticking over very fast last few days but few Mag 4 quakes. Bigger quakes spaced apart.
The New Zealand Seismological Observatory, Geonet have noticed the Crater Lake on the summit of Mt Ruapehu is getting quite hot.

Update. 12 May 2100NZST.
12 May. Murupara 5.2, Totara Flats, Tararua Ranges 4.7, 5.2
South of Kermadecs 4.7
The big push came today in the North Island after a substantial buildup lasting four days.
Not including Atiwhakatu Stream as a risk location was a forecasting mistake.
Mt Ruapehu summit has been closed to trampers.
An eruption seems unlikely, the period is largely over.

Volcano Update. 13 May 1100NZST.
Aotearoa and Pacific volcanic signatures are high today.
Possibility for eruption of Ruapehu 13 May.
Stay off the mountain. Keep to high ridges to avoid potential lahars.
Stay away from the Whangaehu River. The Christmas Eve, 1953 eruption blew the Crater Lake down the Whangaehu River, taking out the rail bridge at Tangiwai and the train crossing it.

Update. 14 May 0130NZST.
14 May. East Cape 4.0 0102NZST.
The forecast period is extended to 14 May.
Totara Flats, Tararua Ranges is added to Mag 4+ risk areas.
Possibility for eruption White Island, Ruapehu.
Quakes and volcanoes were quiet on 13 May.
Volcanic signature remains high.
Forecast confidence = low.

Update. 15 May, 2016 1230NZST.
14 May. East Cape 4.0, White Island 3.9, Ruapehu (Turoa) 3.0, Ngauruhoe 2.1
The forecast period is extended to 15 May.
North Island volcanoes were as hot as hell yesterday. Ruapehu, Ngauruhoe, Tarawera, White Island.
Significant quakes directly at three volcanoes. The forecast for eruptions was justified.
An undersea eruption may be underway at the Kermadec Islands.
Hopefully air pilots, sea captains or satellites will make sightings later.
Stay off Ruapehu. Solar driving conditions eased overnight but are fluctuating today.
Possibility for late quake action in forecasted areas before solar driving conditions fade.

Update. 16 May 0100NZST.
15 May. Christchurch 3.8
The forecast period is extended to 16 May.
Quakes are likely to fade away during the day as the forecast period ends.
Tararua Ranges are higher risk.
Volcanoes cooled slightly on 15 May.
An undersea eruption may be underway in the Kermadecs.
Volcanic activity seems unlikely on 16 May.
Volcano confidence = low.

Summary.
9 May. Northeast of White Island 4.2 1926NZST.
10 May. Northeast of White Island 4.7
11 May. Christchurch 4.7
12 May. Murupara 5.2, Totara Flats, Tararua Ranges 4.7, 5.2
South of Kermadecs 4.7
14 May. East Cape 4.0, White Island 3.9, Ruapehu (Turoa) 3.0, Ngauruhoe 2.1
15 May. Christchurch 3.8
Quakes mostly followed the forecast profile.
Ruapehu, White Island, Tarawera heated up on 12 May.
The warning for a Ruapehu eruption was justified. Quakes accompanied the heating by 14 May.
A possible undersea eruption in the Kermadecs will hopefully be confirmed later.
Volcanoes slightly cooled on 16 May.
The volcanic period appears to be ongoing.

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