Pacific Summary. 10 May 2016 - 16 May 2016

Click to Enlarge
Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Solomon Islands, Sumatra, Molucca Sea, Taiwan, Southern Kuril Islands, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Caribbean Sea, Ecuador, Southern Peru, Northern Chile.
Volcanic activity in Latin America may continue. Colima, Fuego, Turrialba, Santiaguito, Sangay, Niigata-Yake-yama.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 10 May 2000NZST.
10 May. North of Sumatra 5.2
Quake driving conditions are very strong but quakes are few.
Not a good sign, the possibility for a buildup exists.
The quake period has several days to run so some action seems very likely.
Nicaraguan volcano Telica is heating up now, adding to the long list of erupting Latin America volcanoes. Nevados de Chillan (Chile) is also hot.
The period could become volcanic like the 6 May forecast period.
Latin America and South America are higher risk for action next few days.

Update. 12 May 0100NZST.
11 May. China 5.5
The forecast period is extended to 12 May.
Colombia, Hindu Kush, Eastern Himalayas are added to Mag 6+ risk areas.
Global quakes were under Mag 6 today.
Isolated large quakes are possible 12 May.
Colima (Mexico), Telica (Nicaragua), Masaya (Nicaragua), Nevados de Chillan (Chile), Sinabung (Sumatra) are active, adding to the long list of erupting Latin America volcanoes last few days.
More volcanic action seems likely.
Kermadec and Aotearoa volcanoes are heating.

Update. 12 May 2100NZST.
12 May. Taiwan 5.6, 5.5
The forecast period is extended to 13 May.
Quakes were below Mag 6 today although good location success.
No data available for volcanoes.
Southern Kermadecs and Ruapehu are hot. An eruption is possible but unlikely, the period is largely past.

Update 14 May. 0200NZST.
14 May. Pakistan 5.5. Eruption of Turrialba.
The forecast period is extended to 14 May.
Vanuatu, Banda Sea, Kyushu, Honshu are added to Mag 6+ risk areas.
Bristol Island is added to volcanoes.
Quakes were under Mag 6 on 13 May.
The eruption of Turrialba adds to the long list of Latin America volcanoes erupting.
The forecast period has become very volcanic.
More volcanic action seems possible.
Forecast confidence = low.

Update. 15 May 1200NZST.
The forecast period is extended to 15 May.
South of Vanuatu is higher risk area.
The forecast period has become very volcanic, quakes are subdued.
Possible eruptions at Bristol Island (Antarctica) and undersea Kermadecs/Tonga/Monowai yesterday?
The forecast period looked like ending last night but conditions have briefly picked up again today.

Update. 16 May 0100NZST.
15 May. Vanuatu 5.1, Eruption of Santiaguito.
The forecast period is extended to 16 May.
A late quake is still possible and definitely more eruptions before solar driving conditions fade away today.
More volcanic activity in Latin America, Santiaguito this time.
Confirmation of eruption at Sinabung on 10 May.

11 May. Colima, Telica, Masaya, Sinabung erupt.
12 May. Kermadecs, Ruapehu, White Island hot.
13 May. Turrialba erupts.
14 May. Kermadecs, Bristol Island eruptions?
15 May. Santiaguito erupts.
16 May. South of Vanuatu 5.9.
The 15 May addition of South of Vanuatu to risk areas was a good choice.
Volcanoes went off with some good tracking gains.
Hopefully a Kermadec eruption will be confirmed later.

Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2020