Aotearoa Summary. 1 June 2016

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Aotearoa Summary. 27 May - 1 June.

Forecast.
Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Fiordland, South Awatere Valley, Cook Strait, Eastern Tararua Ranges, Napier, Rotorua, Bay of Plenty, Urewera, East Cape.
Volcanic activity may increase.
White Island, Ruapehu may become active later in the period.

Update. 27 May 1100NZST.
27 May. South of Kermadecs 5.4 Geonet. (5.1 USGS, EMSC, GEOFON)
Quake and volcano driving conditions are setting in this morning.

Update. 29 May 0000NZST.
26 May. Fiordland 4.0, Cook Strait 4.3
27 May. South of Kermadecs 5.1 USGS, Northeast of White Island 4.8
28 May. Rotorua 4.0, Fiordland 4.1
Christchurch, Taumarunui are added to Magnitude 4+ risk areas.
Note. The 26 May Cook Strait 4.3 arrived just before this forecast was posted. Cook Strait remains a Mag 4+ risk area.
Solar driving conditions are likely to get stronger as the forecast period ends.
More quakes seem likely and an eruption at White Island possible.
Ruapehu is lower risk for an eruption.

Update. 29 May 2130NZST.
29 May. Fiordland 4.6, Christchurch 3.8, Northeast of Opotiki 3.8
Local quakes were ticking over fast today.
The decision yesterday to add Christchurch to Mag 4+ risk areas was a good one.
Strong quake driving conditions could set in overnight so more quakes are possible.
Volcanoes cooled a little today, globally and locally. The strong volcanic period last week may be coming to an end.
White Island is hot so an eruption is still possible tomorrow.
Ruapehu is lower risk for an eruption.

Update. 30 May 2300NZST.
30 May. Waihopai Valley 4.1
The forecast period is extended to 31 May.
Quake driving conditions were high today.
The Kermadec Islands 5.7, 4.8 double quake generated a quakestorm into New Zealand.
Late quakes are possible on 31 May.
Opotiki, Napier, Doubtful Sound are higher risk Mag 4+ areas
Local and global volcanoes seem to be cooling.
White Island is still an eruption possibility.
Ruapehu is lower eruption risk.

Update. 1 June 0000NZST.
31 May. North of Doubtful Sound 4.6
The forecast period is extended to 1 June.
The Doubtful Sound 4.6 was a great location success.
Quakes are becoming infrequent as the forecast period ends.
Fiordland is a low confidence location for a late quake on 1 June.
Volcanoes are cooling. Eruptions seem unlikely.

Summary.
26 May. Fiordland 4.0, Cook Strait 4.3
27 May. South of Kermadecs 5.1, Northeast of White Island 4.8
28 May. Rotorua 4.0, Fiordland 4.1
29 May. Fiordland 4.6, Christchurch 3.8, Northeast of Opotiki 3.8
30 May Waihopai Valley 4.1
31 May. North of Doubtful Sound 4.6
1 June. South of Kermadecs 4.8, Northeast of White Island 4.7
The 31 May Doubtful Sound 4.6 was a significant location and timing forecast success.
Quakes were very active, including the Kermadec Islands 5.7, 4.8, 5.4 triple quake to the north of New Zealand.
The choice on 28 May to include Christchurch as a Mag 4+ forecast area was justified on 29 May.
White Island and Ruapehu followed the global volcano cooling trend. No eruptions.
A new quake period begins on 6 June.

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