Pacific Summary. Updated. 8 July 2016 - 11 July 2016

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are South of Titicaca, New Britain, Tonga, Fiji, Kermadec Islands, Macquarie, Iran.
Volcanic activity may increase. Santiaguito, Popocatepetl, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Bristol Island, Mt Curry.
Forecast confidence = low.

Update. 8 July 2300NZST.
The forecast period is extended to 10 July.
Pedernales, South of Kermadec Islands, East Timor, Banda Sea are added to Mag 6+ risk areas.
Turrialba is added to volcanoes.
Quakes were quiet on 8 July.
The eruption of Sinabung continued today.
A quake buildup is underway.
The eruption of Kilauea satellite volcano Pu'u O'o on 27 June was unforecasted and unreported by this Service.
Many other volcanoes erupted during the active 25-27 June forecast period.
The lava flow from Pu'u O'o was substantial and due to reach the sea soon.

8 July. Eruption of Sinabung.
9 July. West of Macquarie Island 5.4. Eruption of Turrialba.
11 July. Tonga 6.0, 5.8 0141NZST.
Quakes were quieter than expected during the period.
The forecast for an eruption of Turrialba may have come after the event. Volcano data can be slow coming through.
Solar quake driving conditions are tricky to forecast at the moment.
A brief Pacific quake pickup is possible 12 July.

Summary Update. 11 July 2000NZST.
11 July. Tonga 6.0, 5.8 Pedernales 5.8, 6.3
Quakes have come late.
Tonga and Ecuador double quakes today..
The big Pedernales double quake is the second big aftershock sequence from the 17 April Ecuador 7.8 (summarised 16-18 April Pacific forecast/ and featuring the Japan 7.1 on the same day.
More action possible 12 July.
Forecasting conditions are tricky at the moment.

Summary Update. 12 July 2000NZST
Eruption of Santiaguito 10 July confirmed.

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