Pacific Summary. 19 September 2016 - 25 September 2016

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Tonga, Celebes Sea, Southern Philippines, Sumatra.
Quakes may be infrequent.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Dukono, Suwanose-jima, Bulusan, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch, Santiaguito, Turrialba, Ubinas.
Forecast confidence = low.

Update. 19 September 2330NZST.
Raoul Island is added to volcanoes.
Italian Apennines may receive a Mag 4+ aftershock.
New quake driving conditions are setting in tonight.

Update. 20 September 2330NZST.
20 September. Eruptions Turrialba, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Dukono.
Apennines, Italy 4.0.
The forecast period is extended to 22 September.
Quakes were under Mag 6 today but volcanoes were going off.
Turrialba was a major eruption and seems to have left the capital city San Jose blanketed in ash.
The lava lake at Kilauea is on the rise again.
The extended forecast period seems likely to stay volcanic.
More volcano info posted on Facebook/Roary Arbon.

Update. 21 September 2230NZST.
21 September. South of Japan 6.1. Eruption Shiveluch, Santiaguito.
Kermadec Islands are added to Mag 6+ risk areas.
Kilauea, Havre are added to volcanoes.
The first global Mag 6 in four days at the Izu Islands. Quakes are subdued.
Volcanoes are roaring. Two more location successes today and Bulusan emitting puffs of steam.
The lava lake at Kilauea is rising fast again, just 10 meters from overflowing.
The eruption of Sinabung is confirmed but no other news. Indonesian authorities had just allowed locals back into the area for the first time since the big 23 August eruption.
Anecdotal evidence is that the regular pyroclastic flows from Sinabung have been extending further out from the base of the mountain over time.
Watch out for more Pacific eruptions.

Summary.
20 September. Eruptions Turrialba, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Dukono.
Apennines, Italy 4.0
21 September. Eruption Shiveluch, Santiaguito.
South of Japan 6.1
23 September. Japan 6.2
24 September. Southern Philippines 6.4, Kermadecs 5.8
25 September. Tonga 6.4, Fiji 6.9, Kermadecs 5.9
This forecast had some major successes and a few mistakes.
The outlook for volcanic action was borne out. Turrialba blanketed San Jose in ash.
Sinabung let rip with a big pyroclastic eruption just one day after Indonesian authorities let 15 000 locals back into the area following the big 23 August eruption and evacuation.
The only news item to sneak past the apparent news blackout pointed to about 30 casualties which doesn't seem like a lot.
Possibly the volcano rumbled like hell long enough for the locals to get the message and get out fast.
Major quake and volcanic action in the Kermadecs was added as a forecast possibility on 21 September.
The forecast period then went unexpectedly quiet.
Volcanoes switched to quakes by 24 September including the significant Philippines 6.4.
Perfect location success but two days late.

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