Aotearoa Summary. 16 October 2016 - 19 October 2016

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Northeast of East Cape, East Cape, Eastern Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, North Wairarapa, Atiwhakatu Stream,
Eastern Cook Strait, East of Tory Channel, Upper Taramakau, Doubtful Sound, Te Anau, Snares Islands.
Lunar modulation may center quakes around low tide.
Quakes may begin very early in the period.
Locations may be reviewed on 15 October.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Forecast Update. 16 October 0100NZST.
15 October. Bismarck Sea 6.4, Northeast of East Cape 4.2, 4.2
Moderate quakes ahead of the expected arrival of a new quake period.
The Bismarck Sea was the first Pacific Mag 6 since 26 September.

Update. 16 October 2100NZST.
The forecast period is extended to 17 October.
Local quakes were below Mag 4 today.
Driving conditions are here tonight, a few hours later than forecasted.
Minor eruption White Island is possible.
The period may still go volcanic.

Update. 17 October 2300NZST.
17 October. Te Anau 3.8
The period is extended to 18 October.
Local quakes were sluggish today but may gain momentum.
The biggest local quake was lunar modulated, being one hour after low tide.
The forecast for a minor steam eruption at White Island is now low confidence.

Update. 19 October 0100NZST.
18 October. Taranaki Bight 4.0
The period is extended to 19 October.
Quakes have barely made Mag 4 during the period, despite some big Pacific equatorial action.
Isolated action is still possible.
Solar driving conditions look set to continue for another day at least.
The Taranaki Bight 4.0 was nearly 4 hours from low tide, lunar conditions are weakening.

Update. 21 October, 2016.
South Taranaki Bight 4.0
Todays quake demonstrates the forecast timing difficulties during sluggish activity.
The quake was a perfect location hit for the 19 October Aotearoa forecast.

Summary.
17 October. Te Anau 3.8
18 October. Taranaki Bight 4.0
21 October. South Taranaki Bight 4.0
22 October. Northeast of East Cape 4.5, 4.0
The big Pacific volcanic period in October created many quake location questionmarks during the period.
Quakes returned but barely made it above Mag 4.
Sluggish activity resulted in timing difficulties...quakes came late, after the forecast period.
Nevertheless the 21 October South Taranaki Bight 4.0 was a good location success.

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