Aotearoa Summary. 21 November 2016 - 22 November 2016

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 5+ risk areas are Culverden, Southwest of Kaikoura, Kaikoura, East of Kaikoura, Lower Clarence, Offshore Clarence, Tapuaenuku, Waita, Ward, Cape Campbell, Northeast of Tory Channel, Lower Orongorongo River, Upper Crooked River.
Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Northeast of East Cape, East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, South of Opunake, Mid Wairau River, Te Anau.
A major quake pickup is expected late 21 November or early 22 November.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 21 November 9.30am
Quakes dropped back to low Mag 4 overnight.
Weak solar quake driving conditions have arrived in the last hour so Mag 4 activity looks set to continue today.
A big push may arrive very late 21 November or early 22 November.
More info on Facebook/Roary Arbon.

Update. 21 November 10.00pm.
South of Waita River 4.6 6.06pm.
North Wairarapa/Porangahau is added to Mag 4+ risk areas.
Quakes were quieter and lower Magnitude again today and mostly in the Mag 5 forecast zones.
New solar quake driving conditions are picking up tonight.
A major pickup in quake activity may occur overnight and during tomorrow.
Forecast map updated.
No Pacific forecast is offered ...our resources won't stretch any further. Sabancaya, Kilauea.

Update. 22 November, 9.00am
Porangahau 3.9 10.33pm
Porangahau 3.9 2.43am
Seaward Kaikouras 4.9 6.51am
North Wairarapa is raised from Mag 4 to Mag 5+ risk.
Pressure has been building overnight.
Strong solar quake driving conditions are arriving at the time of this posting.
A major quake uptick is possible.
Forecast map updated.

21 November.
South of Waita River 4.6 6.06pm
Porangahau 3.9 10.33pm
22 November.
Porangahau 3.9 2.43am
Seaward Kaikouras 4.9 6.51am
SE of Porangahau 5.5 1.19pm
Culverden 5.7 6.13pm
This forecast worked very well.
A major solar pickup was observed mid morning.
The North Island was starting to move, justifying the North Wairarapa forecast inclusion and Magnitude increase.
Later on the Culverden 5.7 was widely felt in Christchurch.
A quake swarm hit the Central North Island before midnight but under Mag 4.
The forecast period was extended to 23 November.
Conditions appear set to continue for another day, quakes slightly decreasing.
Another pickup is possible late 24 November.

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