Aotearoa Summary. 22 November 2016 - 23 November 2016
Magnitude 5+ risk areas are Culverden, Southwest of Kaikoura, Kaikoura, East of Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Offshore Clarence, Waita, Kekerengu, Cape Campbell, Northeast of Tory Channel, Porangahau, Upper Crooked River. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Upper Wairau Valley, Lower Orongorongo River, Taranaki, Taihape, Rotorua, Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Te Anau. Locations are largely the same as previous forecast. Update. 22 November, 9.00am Porangahau 3.9 10.33pm Porangahau 3.9 2.43am Seaward Kaikouras 4.9 6.51am North Wairarapa is raised from Mag 4 to Mag 5+ risk. Pressure has been building overnight. Strong solar quake driving conditions are arriving at the time of this posting. A major quake uptick is possible. Forecast map updated. Update. 23 November 1.00am The forecast period is extended to 23 November. Risk areas are unchanged.. Quakes may become less frequent but still big. Forecast Summary. 22 November. Porangahau 3.9 2.43am Cheviot 4.4 4.58am Seaward Kaikouras 4.9 6.51am Porangahau 4.2 11.04 am SE of Porangahau 5.5 1.19pm Culverden 4.8 6.12pm Culverden 5.7 6.13pm Culverden 4.2, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6 6.30pm Northeast of Tory Channel 3.8 8.08pm Northeast of Te Anau 3.7 8.32pm Hunterville 3.7 11.59pm 23 November. Cape Campbell 4.4 3.03am Southwest of Kaikoura 4.0 3.03am White Island 4.9 8.38am Upper Crooked River 3.5, 3.7 9.02am Culverden 4.0 10.08am Cape Campbell 4.7 2.00pm Cheviot 4.2 5.09pm Ward 4.1 5.10pm Cape Campbell 4.4 11.04pm Cheviot 4.2 11.46pm A major quake pickup occurred mid morning on 22 November, meeting the forecast profile for a major solar pickup. Quakes followed the forecast into North Wairarapa. The North Island started to move, justifying the North Wairarapa forecast inclusion and Magnitude increase. Later on in the South Island the Culverden 5.7 was widely felt in Christchurch. A quake swarm hit the Central North Island before midnight but under Mag 4. Decreasing quake driving conditions appeared set to continue for another day with quakes slightly decreasing so the forecast period was extended to 23 November. Plenty of quakes in forecast areas on 23 November, decreasing in frequency and magnitude. Another quake pickup seems likely early 25 November. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
