Aotearoa Summary. 30 November 2016 - 3 December 2016

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Quake activity may increase.
Magnitude 5+ risk areas are Fiordland, Upper Crooked River, Culverden, Southwest of Kaikoura, Kaikoura, East of Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Lower Clarence River, Tapuaenuku, Offshore Clarence, Kekerengu, Waita River, Ward, Cape Campbell, Northwest of Cape Campbell, Northern Cook Strait, Northeast of D'Urville Island, West of Levin, South of Porangahau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, South of Hastings, North of Wairoa, East Cape, Northeast of East Cape.
Magnitude 4+ risk areas are East of St Arnaud, Taranaki, South of Taranaki, Taihape, Eastern Bay of Plenty, Rotorua.
Porangahau is higher risk area.
Volcanoes quiet.
More info at Facebook/Roary Arbon

Update. 30 November 10.30pm
Cape Campbell 4.1
East of Kaikoura 4.0
The forecast period is extended to 1 December.
Solar quake driving conditions faded today and are now very weak.
Quakes may be very infrequent and just at Mag 4 on 1 December.
An isolated big Pacific/New Zealand quake is still possible on 1 December.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 2 December 9.00am
1 December. South of Kaikoura 4.0 6.19am
2 December. East of Cape Campbell 4.1 2.03am
Cape Campbell 4.2 8.44am

The forecast period is extended to 2 December.
Local quakes became infrequent and just at Mag 4 on 1 December.
Solar quake driving conditions are weak but many other data sources are indicating some big Pacific action is just around the corner.
Quakes are likely to remain infrequent and weak today.
The possibility for an isolated Mag 5 quake exists. Be careful.
Local quakes may pick up in frequency and magnitude on Sunday 7 November along with the possibility for a large Pacific quake.
Volcanoes quiet.
Forecast map updated.
More info on Facebook/Roary Arbon.

Summary.
30 November.
Cape Campbell 4.1 2.15am
East of Kaikoura 4.0 6.17am
Ward 4.3 10.53pm
1 December.
South of Kaikoura 4.0 6.19am
2 December.
East of Cape Campbell 4.1 2.03am
Cape Campbell 4.2 8.44am
3 December.
Cape Campbell 4.1 1.50pm
Quakes steadily faded during the period, meeting most forecast profiles.
Luckily, the isolated Mag 5 quake never arrived.
The decision to keep forecast areas at Mag 5 risk was a no brainer.
The Pacific seems to be heavily loaded and the possibility for a large quake was justified, despite weak solar driving conditions during the period.
No forecast was offered for 3 December. Quakes were steady but under Mag 4.
A new mild forecast period is set for late 4 December.
Quakes during the week may slowly start building back up to Mag 5+ on 10-11 December.

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