Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 8 December 2016 - 9 December 2016

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Magnitude 6+ risk areas are New Zealand, Southern Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, South Philippines, Northern Sumatra, Okinawa, Southeast Honshu, South of Titicaca, Southern Chile, South Sandwich Islands.
Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Southern France, Switzerland.
Voclanic activity may increase.
Sabancaya, Cerro Hudson, Turrialba, Fuego, Pacaya, Colima, Sinabung, Shiveluch.
The forecast period will be extended.

Update. 9 November 10.30am
9 November.
Offshore Northern California 6.5
San Cristobal/Solomon Islands 7.8
The decision to drop Guadalcanal and Santa Cruz Islands from the 7 December forecast was clearly a forecasting mistake.
San Cristobal lies directly between the two island groups.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue, marking the easier part of the forecast. Locations are harder.
Pacific quakes may ease a little today after the initial burst.
Lunar and solar effects will be in place next few days so more big action seems very likely, including New Zealand.
Supermoon predictions are everywhere on Internet.
Forecast map updated.

Summary.
9 December.
Offshore Northern California 6.5
Makira/Solomon Islands 7.8
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue.
Frustratingly, the decision to drop Solomon Islands from the 7 December forecast points out how the future is always uncertain and mistakes are always necessary for knowledge to advance.
The new theory testing the occasional switch from quakes to eruptions and back again seems to be holding up.
Volcanoes have dominated last few weeks but quakes may dominate for a brief period...maybe just a week or two.
Volcanoes are throwing ash but no big eruptions.