Pacific Summary. 3 January 2017
New Zealand, Kermadec Islands are higher risk. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Volcanoes are active and could become more active. Nevados de Chillan, Sabancaya, Bogoslof, Kliuchevskoi, Sinabung, Langila. Update. 3 January 2.45am North of Kermadecs 6.0 Northern Peru 5.9 North of New Zealand 5.2 Kermadecs are starting to go off just as Pacific forecast is posted. Update. 3 January 3.00pm North of Kermadecs has been reassessed as Mag 6.3. Titicaca, Southern Honshu/Osaka, Hindu Kush are added to Mag 6 risk areas. Solar quake driving conditions have eased back today but seem likely to pick up very strongly early 4 January. The Kermadecs 6.3 arriving as the forecast was being posted demonstrates how tenuous forecasting can be....if the quake came five minutes earlier both of our overseeing Professors would have ordered the forecast thrown into the bin. Data still points to vulcanism at the expense of quakes but confidence is low. Forecast map updated. Summary. North of Kermadecs 6.3 Eruption Dukono. Quakes were few but the higher risk Kermadecs met forecast profiles. Quakes went quiet after the Kermadecs quakestorm down into New Zealand ahead of the strong pickup expected on 4 January. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
