Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 5 January 2017 - 6 January 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are New Zealand, Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Eastern Banda Sea, Java, Northern Myanmar, Southern Honshu/Osaka, Titicaca, South of Titicaca, Valparaiso, Eastern Himalaya, Hindu Kush, Greece.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Sabancaya, Bogoslof, Kliuchevskoi, Sinabung.
Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Banda Sea are higher risk.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 5 January 10.20am
Eastern Honshu 5.6
Northern Myanmar 4.6
Kilauea is added to volcanos.
Solar quake driving conditions were moderate overnight and likely to strengthen.
Quakes may be infrequent today but on a building trend.

Update. 5 January 11.45pm
Pacific quakes were under Mag 6 today, a respite from the Fiji 6.9, Kermadecs 6.0 double quake.
Solar quake driving conditions are weaker than expected but steady, an isolated Mag 6 is possible.
Mag 7 seems unlikely.
Volcanoes are hot, eruptions seem more likely than big quakes.

Summary.
5 January. Honshu 5.6
6 January. New Zealand 5.3, South of Titicaca 5.7. Eruption Bogoslof.
Quakes were under Mag 6 during the period. The biggest quakes were in forecast locations.
The period was very volcanic.
The lava lake at Kilauea is going up and down like a yoyo.
Bogoslof is regularly erupting big but short lived explosions.
Alaskan vulcanologists say seawater is making the Bogoslof eruptions very explosive.
Many volcanos are smoking hot. Where to draw the line between ash emissions and an eruption is a difficult decision.
Peruvian vulcanologists describe the huge plumes at Sabancaya as "intermittent puffs."