Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 7 January 2017 - 9 January 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are New Zealand, Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Sumatra, Northern Myanmar, Eastern Himalaya, South of Philippines, Southwest of Honshu, Southern Honshu, Northern Colombia, South of Titicaca.
New Zealand is higher risk.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Bogoslof, Nevados de Chillan, Sabancaya, Colima, Turrialba, Fuego, Suwanosejima, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi.
Volcanic activity may dominate over quakes.

Update. 7 January 1.45pm
Vancouver Island, Tonga are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Solar quake driving conditions are consistent.
No volcano data available.
Forecast map updated.

Update. 8 January 12.15am
Vancouver Island 5.5
The forecast period is extended to 9 January.
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 on 7 January.
Solar quake driving conditions were weak but steady.
Volcanic activity and less likely quakes is possible.

Update. 9 January 1.00am
8 January. Eruption Turrialba, Colima, Sinabung.
Banda Sea is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Piton de la Fournaise is added to volcanos.
Global weather has been extreme last few days but quakes ominously quiet.
A buildup could be underway maybe another Mag 7.
Data points to new Zealand as higher Pacific Mag 6 risk....
Solar quake driving conditions remain high against forecast expectations.
Confidence is low ..it is time to sit back and see what happens next.

Summary.
7 January.
Offshore Vancouver Island 6.0
Eruptions Colima, Turrialba.
9 January.
Eruptions Kliuchevskoi, Sinabung, Bogoslof.
10 January.
Celebes Sea 7.3
This forecast was a great success but did get a little messy.
The addition of Vancouver Island as a risk area was justified.
The Pacific went quiet on 8 January but a buildup was underway so extending the forecast was justified.
Many eruptions on 9 January as the period went volcanic.
The decision to reduce Mag 6 areas in favour of volcanoes was premature... the South of Philippines 7.3 on 10 January was in the zone and confirmed the outlook for yet another Mag 7.
Global weather was extreme during the period. Floods, heavy snow. What happens under the ground also happens above, incoming solar windstreams make no distinction.
More weather and volcano info at Facebook/Roary Arbon