Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 9 January 2017

Click to Enlarge

Magnitude 6 risk areas are Seaward Kaikouras, Northeast of Cape Campbell, Cape Palliser, Castlepoint, Porangahau.
Magnitude 5 risk areas are Culverden, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Lower Clarence, Tapuaenuku, Ward, Cape Campbell, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Cape Kidnappers.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Fiordland, Haupiri River, Waverlely, East Cape, Opotiki, Rotorua, Urewera, Murupara, Tokoroa.
Global weather has been extreme last few days but quakes ominously quiet, volcanoes active but no big eruptions.
Solar conditions are still high and not fading according to forecast expectations.
Data points to New Zealand as Pacific Mag 6 high risk.
Forecast confidence = low.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 9 January 5.45pm
Seaward Kaikouras 4.2 1.56am
North Wairarapa, Cape Kidnappers are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Fiordland, Haupiri River are added to Mag 5 risk areas.
Good location success today so far in Seaward Kaikouras hotspot.
Solar quake driving conditions are stubbornly high.
Conditions never observed before at this Service have put the present forecast on new and possibly shakey ground.
Forecast confidence = low.
Forecast map updated.

Summary.
Seaward Kaikouras 4.2 1.56am
Low confidence was justified.
Quakes were way behind solar quake driving conditions signifying a buildup.
Strong indicators of another Mag 6 or greater approaching New Zealand...time will tell.