Aotearoa Summary. 13 February 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Culverden, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Lower Clarence, Ward, Cape Campbell, Northeast of Cape Campbell, South of Wellington.
Magnitude 5 risk areas are Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Cape Kidnappers, Northern Hawkes Bay, Wairoa, Opotiki, Whakatane, East Cape, Northeast of East Cape.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Fiordland, Arawhata River, Mount Cook, Haupiri River, West of Levin, South Taranaki.
Solar quake driving conditions are expected to remain quiet until 15 February but other factors point to a potential earlier release.
The three week long volcanic period may be over and quakes about to dominate again.
New Zealand, Kermadec Islands are high risk Pacific locations.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 13 February 2.00pm
West of Hanmer 3.9 8.46am
Solar quake driving conditions are not strong enough to drive big quakes.
Seismic data shows New Zealand and Kermadec Islands to be under stress.
Solar conditions are changeable so a brief period of solar activity could trigger a quake given the high stress.
Very tricky forecast conditions.
Confidence = low.

Summary.
13 February. West of Hanmer 3.9 8.46am
14 February. Northeast of East Cape 3.9 1.47am
Strong seismic signal but weak solar signal left the forecasters guessing.
Quakes reflected the forecast...some action but not enough to say the forecast was justified.

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