Aotearoa Summary. 17 February 2017 - 20 February 2017
Magnitude 5 risk areas are Ward, Lower Clarence.
Magnitude 4 risk areas Haupiri River, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Cape Kidnappers, North of Napier, Mahia, Wairoa, East Cape, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Urewera.
The volcanic period beginning after the 22 January Bougainville 7.9 may have ended.
Pacific quakes which have been below Mag 6 since 22 January may increase.
Update. 17 February 9.00am
Moderate solar quake driving conditions are here exactly on time.
Conditions are likely to build slowly over the next two days.
Update. 17 February 10.00pm
The forecast period is extended to 18 February.
Local quakes increased in frequency but stayed below Mag 4 today as solar conditions slowly build.
Mag 6 risk areas seem more realistic at Mag 5, conditions are moderate only.
Update. 18 February 12.00pm
Culverden 4.0 1.36am
Wellington is added to Mag 4 risk areas.
Update. 19 February 1.45am
The forecast period is extended to 19 February.
White Island is added as a volcano risk.
Northern Cook Strait and Wellington area have continued to receive minor quakes.
The period seems to be still largely volcanic so hopefully local quakes will remain subdued.
White Island is showing signs of unrest and may have a minor steam eruption in a few days. More info see Facebook/Roary Arbon.
The period will be extended.
Update. 19 February 10.00pm
Local and Pacific quakes were quiet today.
Solar conditions weakened but may pick up a little on 20 February, moderate solar conditions seem set to persist for a few more days.
Mag 6 seems unlikely, Mag 5 is more realistic. The period has been volcanic so far.
No report for White Island today, the volcano appears to be hot so the next few days could see some minor action.
Hopefully Geonet get out there for a look.
Culverden 4.0 1.36am
Culverden 4.8 2.16pm
Northeast of Opotiki 4.0 6.45pm
Wanganui 3.6 6.51pm
Northeast of East Cape 4.7 8.53pm
Pacific and local quakes were very sluggish during the early part of of the period.
Justification for forecasting persistence came on 20 February with a solid hit into Bay of Plenty along with a near miss at Wanganui.
The Culverden 4.8 was widely felt as far as Christchurch and West Coast.
No observations yet to confirm possible volcanic activity at White Island. Vulcanologists will eventually visit the island.
The forecast period has another two days at least to run but a new map will be posted.
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