Aotearoa Summary. 21 February 2017 - 23 February 2017

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Magnitude 5 risk area is Culverden.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Fiordland, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Cape Campbell, North of Cape Campbell, Northern Cook Strait, South of Taranaki, Wairoa, Northern Hawkes Bay, Northeast of East Cape, East Cape, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taumarununi, Taupo, Murupara, Urewera.
Quakes may be infrequent on 21 February, picking up again on 22 February.
Minor steam eruption possible White Island.

Update. 21 February 11.45pm
Northeast of White Island 4.3 2.08pm
Turangi 4.0 9.35pm
Mt Ruapehu 1.1 10.46pm
Taumarunui 3.9 11.11pm
The forecast period is extended to 22 February.
The big Pacific volcano spell has arrived in New Zealand.
The North Island Volcanic Plateau is rumbling, justifying the risk locations.
A big quake swarm at Turangi reached Mag 4.
The forecast for White Island seems justified although no eruption is apparent.
Steady activity may increase very late 22 February.

Update. 22 February 9.00am
Seaward Kaikouras 4.1 8.39am
Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Porangahau are added to Mag 4 risk areas.
The Turangi quake swarm continues today.
An eruption in the Kermadecs or Tonga may be underway.
News may be a day or two coming through or if the eruption is a small undersea blow there may never be confirmation.
Solar conditions are due to pick up later today.

Update. 23 February 12.30am
The forecast period is extended to 23 February.
The Kermadecs or Tonga eruption seems to have been brief but may go off again with the expected incoming solar conditions any time soon.
The North Island Volcanic Plateau is likely to remain seat of the action.
Ruapehu is slightly hot but an eruption seems unlikely unless the solar conditions are stronger than those expected.

Summary.
21 February.
Northeast of White Island 4.3 2.08pm
Turangi 4.0 9.35pm
Mt Ruapehu 1.1 10.46pm
Taumarunui 3.9 11.11pm
22 February.
Seaward Kaikouras 4.1 8.39am
24 February.
Broken River 4.9 2.35am
Cape Campbell 4.3 3.36am
Broken River 4.0 4.29am
This forecast got a little messy when a forecast extension wasn't posted.
The forecast period got off to a busy start.
Data for White Island is sparse but the extended Turangi swarm, anecdotal reports of Taupo rumbling and Ruapehu swarming got the message out that the Volcanic Plateau was hot.
Big quakes in Kermadecs, Louisville, South of Fiji drove a couple of minor quakestorms into New Zealand. A brief undersea eruption may also have occurred.
Conditions went quiet on 22 February but were expected to pick up strongly late 22-early 23 February.
Conditions finally picked up late 23 February resulting in the early 24 February sequence.
The Broken River quakes were neither on our radar nor anywhere near the Alpine Fault, many people are understandably getting a little panicky when quakes happen in the Southern Alps.
The Service was down on 23 February and a forecast extension wasn't posted. (Murphys Law)
A new quake period is expected to begin 27 February, peaking on 1 March.






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