Pacific Summary. 5 March 2017 - 12 March 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are New Zealand, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Banda Sea, Central Philippines. Eastern Java, Northern Sumatra, Southern Chile.
Southwest Pacific is higher risk.
Volcanoes may be active.
Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi, Manam, Sinabung.
Pacific quakes have been slow last few days but may pickup on 5 March.
The forecast period may continue to 8 March.

Update. 5 March 9.30am
Kermadec Islands, Fiji, Southern Vanuatu are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Solar conditions are slowly winding up, isolated big quakes are possible.
Low possibilty Mag 7 Southwest Pacific.

Update. 6 March 10.30am
5 March. Central Philippines 5.7
Eruption Shiveluch, Sinabung.
The forecast period is extended to 6 March.
Quakes were below Mag 6, the biggest was in a difficult forecast area.
Etna has fallen back to mild strombolian eruptions after the big 28 February eruption.
Solar quake driving conditions hardly picked up on 5 March but continued steadily so a windup still appears to be happening.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent but an isolated big quake seems possible.
Low possibility Mag 7 Southwest Pacific.
The forecast period will be extended.

Update. 6 March 11.30pm
6 March. New Britain 6.5
The forecast period is extended to 7 March.
South of Philippines, Southern Philippines, Titicaca are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
The isolated New Britain 6.5 justifies the forecast for infrequent but big quakes.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent 7 March but a late burst is possible 8 March as the forecast period closes.
Southwest Pacific, Southern Philippines are higher risk.
Low possibility Mag 7 Southwest Pacific, Southern Philippines.

Update. 8 March 12.30am
7 March. Kermadec Islands 4.9 8.25am
United States Geological Survey recorded the 380km deep L'Esperance Rock 4.9.
The forecast period is extended to 8 March.
The 2 March outlook for a quake peak on 8 March remains.
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 on 7 March.
Solar quake driving conditions are steady indicating a buildup is likely still underway.
New Zealand, Solomon Islands are higher risk.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
Volcanoes may remain subdued.
The forecast period may be extended.

8 March. 11.00pm
8 March.
Vanuatu 5.6
North Maluku 5.6
The period is extended to 9 March.
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 as solar conditions initially strengthened then weakened late in the day.
Volcanoes were quiet.
Solar conditions are slowly weakening as the quake period closes but will last another day.
Pacific quakes are lagging behind the solar conditions driving them, indicating a big release is possible.

Update. 10 March 12.00am
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 again on 9 March as the period turned volcanic.
Eruptions at Bogoslof (first eruption in 18 days), Sabancaya, Sinabung, Bezymianny (Kamchatka Peninsula), Shiveluch.
Many other volcanoes are reported to be pluming ash, including Solomon Island quake hotspot Langila.
New Zealand volcano White Island is hot.
The forecast period is extended to 10 March.
Solar driving conditions are easing more slowly than anticipated
Volcanic activity may continue to dominate but an isolated big quake is possible.

Summary.
6 March.
New Britain 6.5
8 March.
Vanuatu 5.6
North Maluku 5.6
Eruption Sinabung, Shiveluch, Bezymianny, Sabancaya, Bogoslof.
The only Mag 6 during the period was right in the zone.
Pacific volcanoes dominated the period.
Many eruptions and many volcanoes throwing ash.
New Zealand was a higher risk location...local quakes never got to Mag 6 but were very frequent and got to Mag 5, justifying the forecast.
March/April are likely to be very active months, the question for the forecasters is how much more will the burgeoning volcanic activity grow?














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